Drake Maye

New England Patriots · QB · #10

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under224.5

Over 224.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1154 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 224.5 Passing Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at DEN, 2026-01-25: 86, missed, 21 attempts
vs SEA, 2026-02-08: 295, cleared, 43 attempts
at SEA, 2026-09-09: 178, missed, 33 attempts
vs PIT, 2026-09-20: 208, missed, 22 attempts
at JAX, 2026-09-27: 199, missed, 25 attempts
at BUF, 2026-10-04: 269, cleared, 37 attempts
vs LV, 2026-10-11: 374, cleared, 34 attempts
vs NYJ, 2026-10-18: 235, cleared, 32 attempts
at CHI, 2026-10-22: 321, cleared, 31 attempts
at MIA, 2026-11-01: 199, missed, 20 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 224.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 155.7–332 passing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 224.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
GB allow 220.9 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 23rd most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 27.7 attempts · 2026: 29.3 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at MIA
Game lines
NE −3 · total 44.5 (9 sportsbooks)
NE's games this season closed at 45.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 224.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 224.5

Average: 236.4; +11.9 vs line
Median: 221.5; −3 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −117

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −117, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2404 books	—	6/10
−1901 book	+1451 book	5/10
−1451 book	+1101 book	5/10
−1154 books	−1152 books	5/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	5/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 224.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 224.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 224.5	Under 224.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−114Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−115	−115
FanDuel2 min ago	−136	—

Prices as of 4:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

224.5

225.5 → 224.5 since first seen