Drake Maye

New England Patriots · QB · #10

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1295 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
GB allow 1.25 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 23rd most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 27.7 attempts · 2026: 29.3 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at MIA
Game lines
NE −3 · total 47 (9 sportsbooks)
NE's games this season closed at 45.3 on average (8 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at DEN, 2026-01-25: 0, missed, 21 attempts
vs SEA, 2026-02-08: 2, cleared, 43 attempts
at SEA, 2026-09-09: 1, missed, 33 attempts
vs PIT, 2026-09-20: 0, missed, 22 attempts
at JAX, 2026-09-27: 0, missed, 25 attempts
at BUF, 2026-10-04: 3, cleared, 37 attempts
vs LV, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 34 attempts
vs NYJ, 2026-10-18: 3, cleared, 32 attempts
at CHI, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 31 attempts
at MIA, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 20 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 passing tds.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −129
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −126

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −126, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9104 books	—	7/10
−1295 books	−1034 books	6/10
+3004 books	—	3/10
+11004 books	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−118Best	−112
Bally Bet3 min ago	−129	—
betPARX3 min ago	−129	−103
BetRivers3 min ago	−129	−103
Bovada3 min ago	−130	+100Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −127 → −129 since first seen