Drake London

Atlanta Falcons · WR · #5

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1026 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs LAR, 2025-12-29: 1, hit, 2 targets
vs NO, 2026-01-04: 4, hit, 8 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 4 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 4, hit, 5 targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 9, missed, 10 targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 5, hit, 6 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 7, missed, 11 targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 10 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 7, missed, 10 targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 6 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 6 of 8 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 5.5 with Penix at quarterback: 7 of 18; with another ATL quarterback: 18 of 27
Defense vs wide receivers
CIN allow 11.1 receptions a game to wide receivers: 15th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 8.7 targets · 2026: 7.8 (8 games)
Target share: 29% last 3 games · 28% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at TB

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 4.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 4; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at −102
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25003 books	—	3/10
−6704 books	—	3/10
−2864 books	—	6/10
−1436 books	−1024 books	7/10
+1284 books	—	7/10
+2204 books	—	9/10
+3604 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
betPARX4 min ago	−143	+100Best
Pinnacle4 min ago	−131	−101
FanDuel3 min ago	−130	−102
Bovada3 min ago	−125Best	−105
Bally Bet4 min ago	−143	—
BetRivers4 min ago	−143	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

6.5 → 5.5 since first seen