DK Metcalf

Pittsburgh Steelers · WR · #4

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under49.5

Under 49.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 49.5 Receiving Yards hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at DET, 2025-12-21: 42, hit, 9 targets
vs HOU, 2026-01-12: 42, hit, 5 targets
vs ATL, 2026-09-13: 40, hit, 10 targets
at NE, 2026-09-20: 27, hit, 9 targets
vs CIN, 2026-09-27: 31, hit, 5 targets
at CLE, 2026-10-01: 115, missed, 9 targets
vs IND, 2026-10-11: 12, hit, 4 targets
at TB, 2026-10-18: 93, missed, 15 targets
at NO, 2026-10-25: 56, missed, 6 targets
vs CLE, 2026-11-01: 4, hit, 6 targets

Under hitMissedThe 49.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–94.8 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 49.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers led PIT in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 49.5 with Rodgers at quarterback: 12 of 22; with another PIT quarterback: 2 of 2
Defense vs wide receivers
CIN allow 135.8 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 23rd most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 9 targets · 2026: 8 (8 games)
Target share: 26% last 3 games · 22% over 8 games this season
Rest
13 days off since Nov 1 vs CLE

Splits

Under 49.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CIN

Receiving Yards: 31 in 5 targets, Sep 27 (home)

Under 49.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against CIN on record

L10 · Under 49.5

Average: 46.2; −3.3 vs line
Median: 41; −8.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −115

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −115, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5501 book	—	2/10
−4004 books	—	3/10
−2104 books	—	4/10
−1215 books	−1142 books	7/10
−1153 books	−1142 books	7/10
—	—	7/10
+1324 books	—	8/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 49.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 49.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 49.5	Under 49.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bally Bet2 min ago	−121	—
betPARX2 min ago	−121	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−121	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

49.5

No move since first seen