Darren Waller
DEN @ CAR · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
What's different tonight
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightTargets
Last 3: 2 targets · 2026: 3.6 (7 games) · down 44%
Target share: 5% last 3 games · 9% over 7 games this season
New team
7 games with CAR; before that, MIA
Over 1.5 with CAR: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Defense vs tight ends
DEN allow 6.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 6th most of 32
8 games
Rest
9 days off since Oct 29 at GB
Game log against Over 1.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Count only
Over 1.5 · L10L10 · Over 1.5
- Average
- 2.6
- +1.1 vs line
- Median
- 2.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 66%
- at −190
- Books’ fair
- 59%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 4.1
- 10 games · 4.3 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 59%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −11154 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1904 books | +1282 books | 6/10 | |
| +1654 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +4304 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +11503 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel5 min ago | −152Best | +114 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −190 | — |
| betPARX5 min ago | −190 | +143Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −190 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:01 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over −152 → −190 since first seen