Daniel Jones

Indianapolis Colts · QB · #17

DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under214.5

Under 214.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1363 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 214.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

vs HOU, 2025-11-30: 202, hit, 28 attempts + carries
at JAX, 2025-12-07: 64, hit, 8 attempts + carries
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 170, hit, 32 attempts + carries
at KC, 2026-09-20: 220, missed, 34 attempts + carries
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 240, missed, 39 attempts + carries
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 145, hit, 38 attempts + carries
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 271, missed, 47 attempts + carries
vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 299, missed, 45 attempts + carries
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 121, hit, 26 attempts + carries
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 151, hit, 32 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 214.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 133.3–299.3 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 214.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 34.3 attempts + carries · 2026: 36.6 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX
Game lines
IND +5.5 · total 51.5 (7 sportsbooks)
IND's games this season closed at 44.6 on average (8 games)
DAL injuries
Jalen Thompson (S, Injured Reserve, 5.9 tackles); Caleb Downs (S, Questionable, 6.5 tackles); DeMarvion Overshown (LB, Questionable, 5.4 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 2 more on the report

Splits

Under 214.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Under 214.5 hit in 0 of 1 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs DAL

Pass+Rush Yards: 284 in 44 attempts + carries, Sep 26, 2024 (home)

Under 214.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against DAL on record

L10 · Under 214.5

Average: 188.3; −26.2 vs line
Median: 186; −28.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −106

Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −106, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1623 books	—	5/10
−1073 books	−1362 books	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
+1233 books	—	7/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 214.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 214.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 214.5	Under 214.5
betPARX4 min ago	−107Best	−136Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−107Best	−136Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	−107Best	—

Prices as of 3:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

214.5

219.5 → 214.5 since first seen