Daniel Jones

Indianapolis Colts · QB · #17

DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under19.5

Over 19.5 Completions, typical price −1204 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 19.5 Completions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

vs HOU, 2025-11-30: 14, missed, 27 attempts
at JAX, 2025-12-07: 5, missed, 7 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 19, missed, 31 attempts
at KC, 2026-09-20: 22, cleared, 31 attempts
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 24, cleared, 36 attempts
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 19, missed, 34 attempts
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 24, cleared, 44 attempts
vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 22, cleared, 42 attempts
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 13, missed, 22 attempts
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 19, missed, 28 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 19.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 14.4–27.2 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
DAL allow 21.6 completions a game to quarterbacks: 15th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 30.7 attempts · 2026: 33.5 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX
Game lines
IND +5.5 · total 51.5 (8 sportsbooks)
IND's games this season closed at 44.6 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Over 19.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs DAL

Completions: 29 in 40 attempts, Sep 26, 2024 (home)

Over 19.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 19.5

Average: 18.1; −1.4 vs line
Median: 19; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −112

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −112, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20003 books	—	8/10
−5903 books	—	7/10
−2453 books	—	7/10
−1204 books	−1212 books	4/10
−1101 book	−1201 book	4/10
+1653 books	—	4/10
+3003 books	—	2/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
Pinnacle6 min ago	−118Best	−112Best
Bally Bet6 min ago	−120	—
betPARX6 min ago	−120	−121
BetRivers8 min ago	−120	—

Prices as of 7:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

20.5 → 19.5 since first seen