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Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills · TE · #86

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
OverUnder3.5
Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1401 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Monday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • MonDefense vs tight ends

    MIN allow 3.1 receptions a game to tight ends: the fewest of 32

    7 games

  • Quarterback

    Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 3.5 with Allen at quarterback: 26 of 47; with another BUF quarterback: 0 of 1

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 5 (7 games)

    Target share: 19% last 3 games · 17% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL

Game log against Over 3.5

50%5 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs NYJ, 2026-01-04: 3, missed, 3 targets
  2. at JAX, 2026-01-11: 3, missed, 5 targets
  3. at DEN, 2026-01-17: 6, cleared, 6 targets
  4. at HOU, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 6 targets
  5. vs DET, 2026-09-17: 7, cleared, 8 targets
  6. vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 2, missed, 3 targets
  7. vs NE, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 2 targets
  8. at LAR, 2026-10-12: 1, missed, 2 targets
  9. at LV, 2026-10-18: 7, cleared, 8 targets
  10. vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 4, cleared, 6 targets
ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 3.5

Average
3.9
+0.4 vs line
Median
3.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −140
Books’ fair
55%
margin removed
Our chance
53%
estimate · fair −115

Research, not a pick. At −140 the price is worse than our fair −115, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14001 book—8/10
−3501 book—7/10
−1401 book+1061 book5/10
+1541 book—4/10
+3001 book—3/10
+5801 book—2/10
+9201 book—0/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
FanDuel5 min ago−140Best+106Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 2:38 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over −148 → −140 since first seen

Dalton Kincaid's full game log and splits