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Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills · TE · #86

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
OverUnder40.5
—1 pick'em app, no priceUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 40.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 40.5 with Allen at quarterback: 22 of 47; with another BUF quarterback: 1 of 1

  • Defense vs tight ends

    MIN allow 39.0 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 29th most of 32

    7 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 5 (7 games)

    Target share: 19% last 3 games · 17% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL

Game log against Over 40.5

50%5 of 10L10

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs NYJ, 2026-01-04: 48, cleared, 3 targets
  2. at JAX, 2026-01-11: 28, missed, 5 targets
  3. at DEN, 2026-01-17: 83, cleared, 6 targets
  4. at HOU, 2026-09-13: 130, cleared, 6 targets
  5. vs DET, 2026-09-17: 95, cleared, 8 targets
  6. vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 38, missed, 3 targets
  7. vs NE, 2026-10-04: 7, missed, 2 targets
  8. at LAR, 2026-10-12: 7, missed, 2 targets
  9. at LV, 2026-10-18: 38, missed, 8 targets
  10. vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 86, cleared, 6 targets
ClearedMissedThe 40.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 40.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 40.5

Average
56
+15.5 vs line
Median
43
+2.5 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
—
1 pick'em app, no price
Books’ fair
—
needs both sides
Targets
4.9
10 games · 4.3 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet. It's posted on 1 pick'em app (a pick'em line, no price).

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
pick'em onlypick'em only5/10
Compare 1 pick'em app at 40.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 40.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 40.5Under 40.5
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 2:51 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

40.5

39.5 → 40.5 since we started recording it

Dalton Kincaid's full game log and splits