Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys · QB · #4

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under279.5

Under 279.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1173 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 279.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).

at NYG, 2026-01-04: 69, hit, 13 attempts + carries
at NYG, 2026-09-13: 189, hit, 36 attempts + carries
vs WSH, 2026-09-20: 305, missed, 35 attempts + carries
vs BAL, 2026-09-27: 295, missed, 44 attempts + carries
at HOU, 2026-10-04: 342, missed, 47 attempts + carries
vs TB, 2026-10-08: 316, missed, 42 attempts + carries
at GB, 2026-10-18: 265, hit, 56 attempts + carries
at PHI, 2026-10-26: 220, hit, 29 attempts + carries
vs ARI, 2026-11-01: 215, hit, 36 attempts + carries
at IND, 2026-11-08: 336, missed, 36 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 279.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 196.8–341 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 279.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 33.7 attempts + carries · 2026: 40.1 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at IND
Game lines
DAL +4 · total 56 (6 sportsbooks)
DAL's games this season closed at 50.6 on average (9 games)
SF injuries
Gracen Halton (DT, Injured Reserve, 3 tackles); Deommodore Lenoir (CB, Questionable, 4.4 tackles); Renardo Green (CB, Questionable, 4.4 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 1 more on the report

Splits

Under 279.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SF in his last 10; Under 279.5 hit in 1 of 1 against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs SF

Pass+Rush Yards: 242 in 39 attempts + carries, Oct 27, 2024 (away)

Under 279.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against SF on record

L10 · Under 279.5

Average: 255.2; −24.3 vs line
Median: 280; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −106

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −106, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2503 books	—	4/10
−1293 books	—	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
−1133 books	−1172 books	5/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	5/10
+1433 books	—	6/10
+2553 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 279.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 279.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 279.5	Under 279.5
betPARX3 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−114	−117
Bally Bet3 min ago	−113Best	—

Prices as of 6:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

279.5

−115 → −117 since first seen