Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys · QB · #4

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under24.5

Under 24.5 Completions, typical price −1295 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 24.5 Completions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NYG, 2026-01-04: 7, hit, 11 attempts
at NYG, 2026-09-13: 22, hit, 34 attempts
vs WSH, 2026-09-20: 26, missed, 31 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-09-27: 25, missed, 40 attempts
at HOU, 2026-10-04: 32, missed, 45 attempts
vs TB, 2026-10-08: 24, hit, 42 attempts
at GB, 2026-10-18: 34, missed, 54 attempts
at PHI, 2026-10-26: 15, hit, 27 attempts
vs ARI, 2026-11-01: 19, hit, 29 attempts
at IND, 2026-11-08: 21, hit, 34 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 24.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 15.8–31.2 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 24.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
SF allow 23.5 completions a game to quarterbacks: 4th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 30 attempts · 2026: 37.3 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at IND
Game lines
DAL +4 · total 56 (6 sportsbooks)
DAL's games this season closed at 50.6 on average (9 games)

Splits

Under 24.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SF in his last 10; Under 24.5 hit in 0 of 1 against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs SF

Completions: 25 in 38 attempts, Oct 27, 2024 (away)

Under 24.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against SF on record

L10 · Under 24.5

Average: 22.5; −2 vs line
Median: 23; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −129
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −123, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−7153 books	—	3/10
	−1025 books	−1293 books	6/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 24.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 24.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 24.5	Under 24.5
Bovada3 min ago	−105	−125Best
betPARX3 min ago	+100Best	−129
Pinnacle4 min ago	−102	−130
Bally Bet3 min ago	+100Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−103	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

24.5

Under: No move since first seen