Colston Loveland

Chicago Bears · TE · #84

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1406 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunTargets
Last 3: 9.3 targets · 2026: 6.4 (8 games) · up 45%
Target share: 27% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season
Quarterback
Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Under 5.5 with Williams at quarterback: 16 of 23; with another CHI quarterback: 2 of 3
Defense vs tight ends
TB allow 5.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 17th most of 32
8 games
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA

50%5 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs GB, 2026-01-10: 8, missed, 15 targets
vs LAR, 2026-01-18: 4, hit, 10 targets
at CAR, 2026-09-13: 0, hit, 2 targets
vs MIN, 2026-09-20: 1, hit, 3 targets
vs PHI, 2026-09-28: 4, hit, 4 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-10-04: 6, missed, 9 targets
at GB, 2026-10-11: 2, hit, 5 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-18: 6, missed, 7 targets
vs NE, 2026-10-22: 7, missed, 12 targets
at SEA, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 9 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 4.5; −1 vs line
Median: 5; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −144

Research, not a pick. At −129 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −144, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25004 books	—	3/10
−5604 books	—	3/10
−2204 books	—	5/10
+1006 books	−1404 books	5/10
+1954 books	—	7/10
+3704 books	—	9/10
+7004 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
betPARX7 min ago	+100	−129Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	+100	−133
FanDuel7 min ago	+106	−140
Bovada7 min ago	+110Best	−145
Bally Bet7 min ago	+100	—
BetRivers7 min ago	−103	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Under: −130 → −140 since first seen