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Colston Loveland

Chicago Bears · TE · #84

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM
OverUnder51.5
Under 51.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 51.5

40%4 of 10L10

Under 51.5 Receiving Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 at home).

  1. vs GB, 2026-01-10: 137, missed, 15 targets
  2. vs LAR, 2026-01-18: 56, missed, 10 targets
  3. at CAR, 2026-09-13: 0, hit, 2 targets
  4. vs MIN, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 3 targets
  5. vs PHI, 2026-09-28: 31, hit, 4 targets
  6. vs NYJ, 2026-10-04: 57, missed, 9 targets
  7. at GB, 2026-10-11: 19, hit, 5 targets
  8. at ATL, 2026-10-18: 65, missed, 7 targets
  9. vs NE, 2026-10-22: 69, missed, 12 targets
  10. at SEA, 2026-11-02: 65, missed, 9 targets
Under hitMissedThe 51.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 5.7–79.8 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 51.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 9.3 targets · 2026: 6.4 (8 games) · up 45%

    Target share: 27% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Under 51.5 with Williams at quarterback: 13 of 23; with another CHI quarterback: 2 of 3

  • Defense vs tight ends

    TB allow 56.1 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 12th most of 32

    8 games

  • Rest

    5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA

Splits

Under 51.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 51.5

Average
50.2
−1.3 vs line
Median
56.5
+5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −110, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2504 books—4/10
−1304 books—4/10
−1142 books−1142 books4/10
−1153 books−1142 books4/10
——4/10
+1354 books—6/10
+2254 books—9/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 51.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 51.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 51.5Under 51.5
betPARX4 min ago−115Best−113Best
BetRivers4 min ago−117−114
Bally Bet9 min ago−115Best—
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 8:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

51.5

50.5 → 51.5 since first seen

Colston Loveland's full game log and splits