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Christian Watson

Green Bay Packers · WR · #9

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder4.5
Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1656 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 4.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

  1. at CHI, 2026-01-10: 3, missed, 7 targets
  2. at MIN, 2026-09-13: 6, cleared, 8 targets
  3. at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 4, missed, 11 targets
  4. vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 7, cleared, 10 targets
  5. at TB, 2026-10-04: 3, missed, 3 targets
  6. vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 6, cleared, 8 targets
  7. vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 3, missed, 8 targets
  8. at DET, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 8 targets
  9. vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 8, cleared, 10 targets
  10. at NE, 2026-11-08: 7, cleared, 8 targets
ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jordan Love led GB in passing in 9 of 9 games this season

    Over 4.5 with Love at quarterback: 9 of 37; with another GB quarterback: 1 of 3

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    MIN allow 10.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 25th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 8.7 targets · 2026: 8.2 (9 games)

    Target share: 23% last 3 games · 22% over 9 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at NE

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIN

Receptions: 6 in 8 targets, Sep 13 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average
5.2
+0.7 vs line
Median
5.5
+1 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −165
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −158 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −142, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−12504 books—10/10
−3854 books—7/10
−1656 books+1184 books6/10
+1284 books—5/10
+2354 books—3/10
+4404 books—1/10
+8504 books—0/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
FanDuel8 min ago−158Best+118
Pinnacle8 min ago−158Best+118
Bovada8 min ago−160+120
Bally Bet8 min ago−165—
betPARX8 min ago−165+125Best
BetRivers8 min ago−165—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: −158 → −165 since first seen

Christian Watson's full game log and splits