Chase Brown

Cincinnati Bengals · RB · #30

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1063 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 22, cleared, 22 carries
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 13, cleared, 13 carries
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 16, cleared, 16 carries
at HOU, 2026-09-20: 20, cleared, 20 carries
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 13, cleared, 13 carries
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 9, missed, 9 carries
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 13, cleared, 13 carries
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 11, missed, 11 carries
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 12, cleared, 12 carries
at ATL, 2026-11-08: 9, missed, 9 carries

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 6.8–17 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 11.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 24 of 31; with another CIN quarterback: 4 of 16
Defense vs running backs
PIT allow 19.6 carries a game to running backs: 28th most of 32
8 games
Carries
Last 3: 10.7 carries · 2026: 12.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at ATL

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PIT

Rushing Attempts: 13 in 13 carries, Sep 27 (away)

Over 11.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against PIT on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 13.8; +2.3 vs line
Median: 13; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −106
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −109

Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −109, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7703 books	—	10/10
−2503 books	—	8/10
−1063 books	−1241 book	7/10
+2053 books	—	3/10
+4503 books	—	3/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	−106Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−106Best	−124Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−107	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

+100 → −106 since first seen