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Chase Brown

Cincinnati Bengals · RB · #30

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1405 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 4.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

  1. vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 3, hit, 3 targets
  2. vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 4, hit, 6 targets
  3. vs TB, 2026-09-13: 5, missed, 6 targets
  4. at HOU, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 5 targets
  5. at PIT, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 11, missed, 11 targets
  7. at MIA, 2026-10-11: 3, hit, 4 targets
  8. at BAL, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 5 targets
  9. vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 8, missed, 9 targets
  10. at ATL, 2026-11-08: 3, hit, 3 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs running backs

    PIT allow 5.8 receptions a game to running backs: 2nd most of 32

    8 games

  • Quarterback

    Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 4.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 21 of 30; with another CIN quarterback: 12 of 15

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 5.6 (8 games)

    Target share: 16% last 3 games · 15% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at ATL

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PIT

Receptions: 2 in 2 targets, Sep 27 (away)

Under 4.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against PIT on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
4.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
3.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −140
Books’ fair
55%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −140 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−33353 books—0/10
−5604 books—1/10
−2004 books—5/10
+1125 books−1403 books7/10
+2204 books—8/10
+4404 books—8/10
+8504 books—8/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
FanDuel6 min ago+106−140Best
Pinnacle7 min ago+106−140Best
betPARX6 min ago+112Best−148
Bally Bet6 min ago+112Best—
BetRivers6 min ago+112Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−130 → −140 since first seen

Chase Brown's full game log and splits