Chase Brown
PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM
Game log against Under 73.5
30%3 of 10L10
Under 73.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 3 of his last 10 games (0 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 39.5–95.9 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 73.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 73.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 12 of 31; with another CIN quarterback: 10 of 16
Defense vs running backs
PIT allow 116.9 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 21st most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 16.3 carries + targets · 2026: 18.5 (8 games)
Target share: 16% last 3 games · 15% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at ATL
Splits
Under 73.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs PIT
Rush+Rec Yards: 69 in 15 carries + targets, Sep 27 (away)
Under 73.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against PIT on record
L10 · Under 73.5
- Average
- 83.5
- +10 vs line
- Median
- 79.5
- +6 vs line
- Hit rate
- 30%
- 3 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −103
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −103, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −5303 books | — | 0/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 3/10 | |
| −1143 books | −1152 books | 3/10 | |
| −1083 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −1201 book | −1101 book | 4/10 | |
| +2953 books | — | 8/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 73.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 73.5 | Under 73.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX3 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −114Best | — |
Prices as of 7:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
73.572.5 → 73.5 since first seen