Chase Brown

Cincinnati Bengals · RB · #30

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM

Over Under76.5

Under 76.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1213 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

30%3 of 10L10

Under 76.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 3 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at MIA, 2025-12-21: 109, missed, 16 carries + targets
vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 141, missed, 25 carries + targets
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 90, missed, 19 carries + targets
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 78, missed, 22 carries + targets
at HOU, 2026-09-20: 82, missed, 25 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 69, hit, 15 carries + targets
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 81, missed, 20 carries + targets
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 60, hit, 17 carries + targets
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 58, hit, 16 carries + targets
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 101, missed, 21 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 76.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 36.8–93.2 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 76.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 76.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 12 of 30; with another CIN quarterback: 10 of 16
Defense vs running backs
ATL allow 144.3 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 7th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 18 carries + targets · 2026: 19.4 (7 games)
Target share: 16% last 3 games · 16% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs TEN

Splits

Under 76.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 76.5

Average: 86.9; +10.4 vs line
Median: 81.5; +5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −121
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −122

Research, not a pick. At −121 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −122, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3153 books	—	1/10
−1753 books	—	3/10
−1151 book	−1131 book	3/10
−1203 books	−1212 books	3/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	4/10
−1043 books	—	4/10
+1553 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 76.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 76.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 76.5	Under 76.5
betPARX4 min ago	−120Best	−121Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−120Best	−121Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	−120Best	—

Prices as of 2:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

76.5

79.5 → 76.5 since first seen