Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears · QB · #18

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under31.5

Over 31.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1085 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 31.5 Passing Attempts cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs GB, 2025-12-20: 34, cleared, 34 attempts
at SF, 2025-12-28: 42, cleared, 42 attempts
vs DET, 2026-01-04: 33, cleared, 33 attempts
vs GB, 2026-01-10: 48, cleared, 48 attempts
vs LAR, 2026-01-18: 42, cleared, 42 attempts
at CAR, 2026-09-13: 29, missed, 29 attempts
vs MIN, 2026-09-20: 26, missed, 26 attempts
at ATL, 2026-10-18: 36, cleared, 36 attempts
vs NE, 2026-10-22: 33, cleared, 33 attempts
at SEA, 2026-11-02: 34, cleared, 34 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 31.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 27.1–42.5 passing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Over 31.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Back from an absence
Sunday's game is his 4th back after missing 3 games in a row (Sep 28 – Oct 11)
Over 31.5 since: 3 of 3
Defense vs quarterbacks
TB allow 33.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 16th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 34.3 attempts · 2026: 31.6 (5 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA

Splits

Over 31.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 31.5

Average: 35.7; +4.2 vs line
Median: 34; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3603 books	—	9/10
−1903 books	—	8/10
−1085 books	−1224 books	8/10
+1553 books	—	6/10
+2503 books	—	4/10
+4103 books	—	3/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 31.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 31.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 31.5	Under 31.5
Pinnacle5 min ago	−106Best	−125
Bally Bet5 min ago	−108	—
betPARX5 min ago	−108	−121
BetRivers5 min ago	−109	−122
Bovada5 min ago	−110	−120Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

31.5

32.5 → 31.5 since first seen