Caleb Williams
TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM
What's different on Sunday
Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pickBack from an absence
Sunday's game is his 4th back after missing 3 games in a row (Sep 28 – Oct 11)
Over 21.5 since: 3 of 3
Defense vs quarterbacks
TB allow 21.0 completions a game to quarterbacks: 20th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 34.3 attempts · 2026: 31.6 (5 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA
Game log against Over 21.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 21.5 Completions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).
Splits
Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 21.5
- Average
- 22.3
- +0.8 vs line
- Median
- 22.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −113
- Books’ fair
- 48%
- margin removed
- Pass attempts
- 35.7
- 10 games · 34.6 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 21.5 48%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2503 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1301 book | +1001 book | 7/10 | |
| −1134 books | −1362 books | 6/10 | |
| +2553 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 21.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 21.5 | Under 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle15 min ago | +102Best | −136 |
| Bally Bet15 min ago | −113 | — |
| betPARX15 min ago | −113 | −115Best |
| BetRivers15 min ago | −114 | — |
Prices as of 3:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
21.5Over: −120 → −113 since first seen