C.J. Stroud

Houston Texans · QB · #7

HOU @ CLE · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1206 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 on the road).

at PIT, 2026-01-12: 1, missed, 32 attempts
at NE, 2026-01-18: 1, missed, 47 attempts
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 2, cleared, 38 attempts
vs CIN, 2026-09-20: 0, missed, 55 attempts
at IND, 2026-09-27: 1, missed, 27 attempts
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 31 attempts
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 34 attempts
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 3, cleared, 34 attempts
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 28 attempts
at LAC, 2026-11-08: 5, cleared, 35 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
CLE allow 1.33 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 23rd most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32.3 attempts · 2026: 35.3 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at LAC
Game lines
HOU −5 · total 41.5 (7 sportsbooks)
HOU's games this season closed at 43.1 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CLE

Passing TDs: 3 in 21 attempts, Jan 13, 2024 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against CLE on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −121

Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −121, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7154 books	—	9/10
−1206 books	−1105 books	5/10
+3604 books	—	2/10
+9201 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−109Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	−109Best	−120
BetRivers3 min ago	−110	−121
Bovada3 min ago	−120	−110
FanDuel3 min ago	−125	−106Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	−125	−106Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:11 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: +110 → −120 since first seen