Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · RB · #7

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1253 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs running backs
CHI allow 17.0 carries a game to running backs: the fewest of 32
8 games
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield led TB in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Jalon Daniels 3. Over 14.5 with Mayfield at quarterback: 18 of 33; with another TB quarterback: 3 of 3
Carries
Last 3: 23.3 carries · 2026: 18.4 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs ATL

80%8 of 10L10

Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

at MIA, 2025-12-28: 9, missed, 9 carries
vs CAR, 2026-01-03: 26, cleared, 26 carries
at CIN, 2026-09-13: 8, missed, 8 carries
vs CLE, 2026-09-20: 17, cleared, 17 carries
vs MIN, 2026-09-27: 15, cleared, 15 carries
vs GB, 2026-10-04: 16, cleared, 16 carries
at DAL, 2026-10-08: 21, cleared, 21 carries
vs PIT, 2026-10-18: 19, cleared, 19 carries
at CAR, 2026-10-25: 24, cleared, 24 carries
vs ATL, 2026-11-01: 27, cleared, 27 carries

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 8.4–23.4 rushing attempts.

Splits

Over 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 14.5

Average: 18.2; +3.7 vs line
Median: 18; +3.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −159, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1253 books	−1051 book	8/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+3903 books	—	4/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	−125Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−125Best	−105Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−125Best	—

Prices as of 2:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

Over −122 → −125 since first seen