Brock Purdy

San Francisco 49ers · QB · #13

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −2206 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at PHI, 2026-01-11: 2, cleared, 31 attempts
at SEA, 2026-01-17: 0, missed, 27 attempts
at LAR, 2026-09-10: 3, cleared, 34 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 2, cleared, 22 attempts
vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 4, cleared, 27 attempts
vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 30 attempts
at SEA, 2026-10-11: 2, cleared, 29 attempts
vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 29 attempts
at ATL, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 40 attempts
vs LV, 2026-11-08: 2, cleared, 25 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
DAL allow 1.78 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 7th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 31.3 attempts · 2026: 29.5 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV
Game lines
SF −4 · total 56 (6 sportsbooks)
SF's games this season closed at 48.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs DAL

Passing TDs: 1 in 26 attempts, Oct 27, 2024 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 69%; at −220
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −165

Research, not a pick. At −205 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −165, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20004 books	—	9/10
−2206 books	+1625 books	7/10
+1954 books	—	2/10
+7004 books	—	1/10
+15001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet7 min ago	−205Best	—
betPARX7 min ago	−205Best	+155
BetRivers7 min ago	−210	+155
Bovada7 min ago	−220	+165Best
Pinnacle8 min ago	−220	+162
FanDuel7 min ago	−225	+162
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−210 → −220 since first seen