Brock Purdy

San Francisco 49ers · QB · #13

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under280.5

Under 280.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1173 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 280.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at PHI, 2026-01-11: 286, missed, 40 attempts + carries
at SEA, 2026-01-17: 177, hit, 32 attempts + carries
at LAR, 2026-09-10: 234, hit, 39 attempts + carries
vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 317, missed, 25 attempts + carries
vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 331, missed, 29 attempts + carries
vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 247, hit, 40 attempts + carries
at SEA, 2026-10-11: 195, hit, 34 attempts + carries
vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 292, missed, 34 attempts + carries
at ATL, 2026-10-25: 293, missed, 42 attempts + carries
vs LV, 2026-11-08: 272, hit, 32 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 280.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 199.4–315.4 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 280.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 36 attempts + carries · 2026: 34.4 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV
Game lines
SF −4 · total 56 (6 sportsbooks)
SF's games this season closed at 48.5 on average (8 games)
DAL injuries
P.J. Locke (S, Out, 3.9 tackles); DeMarvion Overshown (LB, Questionable, 5.4 tackles); Donovan Ezeiruaku (LB, Questionable, 3.4 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 1 more on the report

Splits

Under 280.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Under 280.5 hit in 0 of 1 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs DAL

Pass+Rush Yards: 316 in 34 attempts + carries, Oct 27, 2024 (home)

Under 280.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against DAL on record

L10 · Under 280.5

Average: 264.4; −16.1 vs line
Median: 279; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −127

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −127, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2753 books	—	4/10
−1323 books	—	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
—	—	5/10
−1133 books	−1172 books	5/10
+1433 books	—	8/10
+2603 books	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 280.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 280.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 280.5	Under 280.5
betPARX13 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers13 min ago	−114	−117
Bally Bet13 min ago	−113Best	—

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

280.5

279.5 → 280.5 since first seen