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Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars · WR · #7

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
OverUnder1.5
Over 1.5 Receptions, typical price +1503 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightRest

    3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week

  • Quarterback

    Trevor Lawrence led JAX in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 1.5 with Lawrence at quarterback: 26 of 31; with another JAX quarterback: 8 of 8

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    BAL allow 12.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 7th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 2.3 targets · 2026: 3 (7 games)

    Target share: 7% last 3 games · 10% over 7 games this season

Game log against Over 1.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 on the road).

  1. at IND, 2025-12-28: 4, cleared, 7 targets
  2. vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 3, cleared, 5 targets
  3. vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 2, cleared, 2 targets
  4. vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 3, cleared, 3 targets
  5. at DEN, 2026-09-20: 3, cleared, 8 targets
  6. vs NE, 2026-09-27: 1, missed, 1 targets
  7. at CIN, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 2 targets
  8. vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 0, missed, 3 targets
  9. vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 2 targets
  10. vs IND, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 2 targets
ClearedMissedThe 1.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 1.5

Average
1.9
+0.4 vs line
Median
2
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
40%
at +150
Books’ fair
37%
margin removed
Targets
3.5
10 games · 6.2 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 37%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−3101 book—8/10
+1503 books−2003 books6/10
+4501 book—4/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 1.5Under 1.5
FanDuel4 min ago+158Best−215
Bovada3 min ago+150−200Best
Pinnacle3 min ago+148−200Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over +158 → +150 since first seen

Brian Thomas Jr.'s full game log and splits