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Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars · WR · #7

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
OverUnder10.5
Over 10.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 10.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightRest

    3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week

  • Quarterback

    Trevor Lawrence led JAX in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 10.5 with Lawrence at quarterback: 28 of 31; with another JAX quarterback: 8 of 8

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    BAL allow 177.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 5th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 2.3 targets · 2026: 3 (7 games)

    Target share: 7% last 3 games · 10% over 7 games this season

Game log against Over 10.5

70%7 of 10L10

Over 10.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 on the road).

  1. at IND, 2025-12-28: 39, cleared, 7 targets
  2. vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 49, cleared, 5 targets
  3. vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 21, cleared, 2 targets
  4. vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 40, cleared, 3 targets
  5. at DEN, 2026-09-20: 40, cleared, 8 targets
  6. vs NE, 2026-09-27: 8, missed, 1 targets
  7. at CIN, 2026-10-04: 17, cleared, 2 targets
  8. vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 0, missed, 3 targets
  9. vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 2 targets
  10. vs IND, 2026-11-01: 12, cleared, 2 targets
ClearedMissedThe 10.5 lineTargets

Count only

Over 10.5 · L10

L10 · Over 10.5

Average
22.6
+12.1 vs line
Median
19
+8.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Targets
3.5
10 games · 6.2 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 10.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2301 book—8/10
−1251 book—7/10
−1142 books−1142 books7/10
+1301 book—6/10
+1941 book—5/10
+2701 book—4/10
+3601 book—4/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 10.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 10.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 10.5Under 10.5
FanDuel6 min ago−114Best−114Best
Pinnacle11 min ago−114Best−114Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 8:35 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

10.5

Over No move since first seen

Brian Thomas Jr.'s full game log and splits