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Brenton Strange

Jacksonville Jaguars · TE · #85

JAX @ BAL · Tomorrow 8:15 PM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1086 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tomorrow

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TomorrowRest

    3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week

  • Quarterback

    Trevor Lawrence led JAX in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Under 3.5 with Lawrence at quarterback: 16 of 27; with another JAX quarterback: 7 of 9

  • Defense vs tight ends

    BAL allow 4.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 27th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 5 (7 games)

    Target share: 18% last 3 games · 17% over 7 games this season

Game log against Under 3.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

  1. at IND, 2025-12-28: 3, hit, 5 targets
  2. vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 6, missed, 6 targets
  3. vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 2, hit, 5 targets
  4. vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 3 targets
  5. at DEN, 2026-09-20: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. vs NE, 2026-09-27: 3, hit, 5 targets
  7. at CIN, 2026-10-04: 7, missed, 8 targets
  8. vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 7, missed, 8 targets
  9. vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 5, missed, 7 targets
  10. vs IND, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 2 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
3.9
+0.4 vs line
Median
3
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
52%
at −108
Books’ fair
48%
margin removed
Our chance
49%
estimate · fair +102

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair +102, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14304 books—0/10
−3354 books—4/10
−1246 books−1084 books6/10
+1804 books—6/10
+3804 books—7/10
+8004 books—8/10
+11001 book—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
Bovada16 min ago−130+100Best
betPARX5 min ago−124−105
FanDuel5 min ago−122Best−108
Pinnacle16 min ago−122Best−108
Bally Bet16 min ago−124—
BetRivers5 min ago−125—
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: −102 → −108 since first seen

Brenton Strange's full game log and splits