Brenton Strange
JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence led JAX in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 3.5 with Lawrence at quarterback: 11 of 27; with another JAX quarterback: 2 of 9
Defense vs tight ends
BAL allow 4.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 27th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 5 (7 games)
Target share: 18% last 3 games · 17% over 7 games this season
Game log against Over 3.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 on the road).
Count only
Over 3.5 · L10L10 · Over 3.5
- Average
- 3.9
- +0.4 vs line
- Median
- 3
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 56%
- at −127
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 5.1
- 10 games · 5 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 3.5 51%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −14303 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −3453 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1275 books | −1083 books | 4/10 | |
| +1753 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +3753 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +8003 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada3 min ago | −110Best | −120 |
| Pinnacle3 min ago | −122 | −108 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −127 | — |
| betPARX1 min ago | −127 | −103Best |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −129 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5Over −130 → −127 since first seen