Braelon Allen
NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 33.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 33.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1.4–129.1 rushing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 33.5 · facts from past games, not a pickSunCarries
Last 3: 18.3 carries · 2026: 14 (8 games) · up 31%
Quarterback
Geno Smith led NYJ in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 33.5 with Smith at quarterback: 6 of 8; with another NYJ quarterback: 3 of 21
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 70.3 rushing yards a game to running backs: 29th most of 32
7 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs LV
Splits
Over 33.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 33.5
- Average
- 62.1
- +28.6 vs line
- Median
- 49.5
- +16 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −112
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 61%
- estimate · fair −156
Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −156, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2051 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −1524 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 6/10 | |
| −1124 books | −1183 books | 6/10 | |
| −1101 book | −1201 book | 6/10 | |
| +1404 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +2604 books | — | 5/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 33.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 33.5 | Under 33.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −110Best | — |
| betPARX6 min ago | −110Best | −118 |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −112 | −120 |
| Bovada10 min ago | −120 | −110Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:15 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
33.532.5 → 33.5 since first seen