Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · RB · #7

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM

Over Under121.5

Under 121.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1173 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 121.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs LAR, 2025-12-29: 229, missed, 30 carries + targets
vs NO, 2026-01-04: 43, hit, 18 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 173, missed, 31 carries + targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 81, hit, 20 carries + targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 213, missed, 31 carries + targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 147, missed, 21 carries + targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 118, hit, 24 carries + targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 53, hit, 11 carries + targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 122, missed, 25 carries + targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 76, hit, 20 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 121.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 28.6–165.9 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 121.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 6 of 8 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 121.5 with Penix at quarterback: 9 of 18; with another ATL quarterback: 18 of 32
Defense vs running backs
CIN allow 115.6 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 22nd most of 32
7 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 18.7 carries + targets · 2026: 22.9 (8 games)
Target share: 9% last 3 games · 15% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at TB

Splits

Under 121.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 121.5

Average: 125.5; +4 vs line
Median: 120; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −124

Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −124, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2953 books	—	4/10
−1953 books	—	4/10
−1343 books	—	5/10
−1243 books	−1172 books	5/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
+1053 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 121.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 121.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 121.5	Under 121.5
betPARX4 min ago	−124Best	−117Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−124Best	−117Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	−124Best	—

Prices as of 5:31 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

121.5

119.5 → 121.5 since first seen