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Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · RB · #7

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1666 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 2.7 targets · 2026: 4.1 (8 games) · down 34%

    Target share: 9% last 3 games · 15% over 8 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 6 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 3.5 with Penix at quarterback: 9 of 18; with another ATL quarterback: 18 of 33

  • Defense vs running backs

    CIN allow 3.9 receptions a game to running backs: 21st most of 32

    7 games

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at TB

Game log against Under 3.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

  1. vs LAR, 2025-12-29: 5, missed, 8 targets
  2. vs NO, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 3 targets
  3. at PIT, 2026-09-13: 8, missed, 10 targets
  4. vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 4 targets
  5. at GB, 2026-09-24: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. at NO, 2026-10-05: 1, hit, 2 targets
  7. vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 7 targets
  8. vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 2 targets
  9. vs SF, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 5 targets
  10. at TB, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 1 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
3.3
−0.2 vs line
Median
3
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −166
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
60%
estimate · fair −149

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −149, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−5604 books—2/10
−1804 books+1231 book4/10
+1256 books−1663 books6/10
+2704 books—7/10
+5004 books—9/10
+8801 book—9/10
+12801 book—9/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
Bovada5 min ago+125−165Best
FanDuel5 min ago+124−166
Pinnacle5 min ago+124−166
Bally Bet5 min ago+132Best—
betPARX5 min ago+132Best—
BetRivers5 min ago+132Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 2:27 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

2.5 → 3.5 since first seen

Bijan Robinson's full game log and splits