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Ashton Jeanty

Las Vegas Raiders · RB · #2

LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1485 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs running backs

    SF allow 7.0 receptions a game to running backs: the most of 32

    7 games

  • Quarterback

    Kirk Cousins led LV in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 4.5 with Cousins at quarterback: 5 of 8; with another LV quarterback: 11 of 16

  • Targets

    Last 3: 6 targets · 2026: 6 (8 games)

    Target share: 16% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at NYJ

Game log against Under 4.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

  1. vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 2, hit, 2 targets
  2. vs KC, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 5 targets
  3. vs MIA, 2026-09-13: 6, missed, 6 targets
  4. at LAC, 2026-09-20: 4, hit, 7 targets
  5. at NO, 2026-09-27: 3, hit, 3 targets
  6. vs KC, 2026-10-04: 6, missed, 8 targets
  7. at NE, 2026-10-11: 3, hit, 6 targets
  8. vs BUF, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 6 targets
  9. vs LAR, 2026-10-25: 8, missed, 8 targets
  10. at NYJ, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 4 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
4.2
−0.3 vs line
Median
3.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
60%
at −148
Books’ fair
56%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −143, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−25003 books—0/10
−5304 books—1/10
−1954 books—5/10
+1125 books−1483 books7/10
+2204 books—7/10
+4204 books—9/10
+8004 books—9/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
betPARX10 min ago+114Best−148Best
FanDuel10 min ago+112−148Best
Pinnacle10 min ago+112−148Best
Bally Bet10 min ago+114Best—
BetRivers10 min ago+112—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 9:42 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: No move since first seen

Ashton Jeanty's full game log and splits