Aaron Jones Sr.

Minnesota Vikings · RB · #33

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under8.5

Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1133 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at NYG, 2025-12-21: 21, cleared, 21 carries
vs DET, 2025-12-25: 18, cleared, 18 carries
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 12, cleared, 12 carries
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 23, cleared, 23 carries
at TB, 2026-09-27: 17, cleared, 17 carries
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 20, cleared, 20 carries
at NO, 2026-10-11: 25, cleared, 25 carries
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 8, missed, 8 carries
at DET, 2026-11-01: 5, missed, 5 carries
vs BUF, 2026-11-09: 5, missed, 5 carries

ClearedMissedThe 8.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2.1–22.6 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Over 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Kyler Murray at quarterback; Murray is out on Sunday. Without him (MIN): Over 8.5 in 26 of 33.

SunQuarterback
Kyler Murray: Doubtful (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 3 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 8.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 26 of 33
SunCarries
Last 3: 6 carries · 2026: 14.4 (8 games) · down 58%
Defense vs running backs
GB allow 22.7 carries a game to running backs: 16th most of 32
9 games
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 vs BUF

Splits

Over 8.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs GB

Rushing Attempts: 12 in 12 carries, Sep 13 (home)

Over 8.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against GB on record

L10 · Over 8.5

Average: 15.4; +6.9 vs line
Median: 17.5; +9 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −131, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7703 books	—	8/10
−1953 books	—	8/10
−1133 books	−1151 book	7/10
+1453 books	—	7/10
+3603 books	—	7/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−113Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−114	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

+110 → −113 since first seen