Aaron Jones Sr.

Minnesota Vikings · RB · #33

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Over 28.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1146 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 28.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at NYG, 2025-12-21: 85, cleared, 21 carries
vs DET, 2025-12-25: 53, cleared, 18 carries
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 40, cleared, 12 carries
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 105, cleared, 23 carries
at TB, 2026-09-27: 58, cleared, 17 carries
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 94, cleared, 20 carries
at NO, 2026-10-11: 113, cleared, 25 carries
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 26, missed, 8 carries
at DET, 2026-11-01: 22, missed, 5 carries
vs BUF, 2026-11-09: 16, missed, 5 carries

ClearedMissedThe 28.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1.5–102.8 rushing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Kyler Murray at quarterback; Murray is out on Sunday. Without him (MIN): Over 28.5 in 27 of 33.

SunQuarterback
Kyler Murray: Doubtful (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 3 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 28.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 27 of 33
SunCarries
Last 3: 6 carries · 2026: 14.4 (8 games) · down 58%
Defense vs running backs
GB allow 93.2 rushing yards a game to running backs: 17th most of 32
9 games
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 vs BUF

Splits

Over 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs GB

Rushing Yards: 40 in 12 carries, Sep 13 (home)

Over 28.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against GB on record

L10 · Over 28.5

Average: 61.2; +32.7 vs line
Median: 55.5; +27 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2654 books	—	9/10
−1581 book	—	8/10
—	—	7/10
−1146 books	−1155 books	7/10
−1044 books	—	7/10
+1904 books	—	7/10
+3504 books	—	6/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
Bovada14 min ago	−110Best	−120
Bally Bet14 min ago	−113	—
betPARX14 min ago	−113	−115
BetRivers14 min ago	−114	−117
FanDuel14 min ago	−114	−114Best
Pinnacle14 min ago	−114	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

27.5 → 28.5 since first seen