Aaron Jones Sr.

Minnesota Vikings · RB · #33

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under41.5

Over 41.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1175 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 41.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at NYG, 2025-12-21: 93, cleared, 24 carries + targets
vs DET, 2025-12-25: 63, cleared, 22 carries + targets
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 40, missed, 13 carries + targets
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 105, cleared, 23 carries + targets
at TB, 2026-09-27: 92, cleared, 23 carries + targets
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 128, cleared, 28 carries + targets
at NO, 2026-10-11: 117, cleared, 28 carries + targets
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 26, missed, 9 carries + targets
at DET, 2026-11-01: 40, missed, 7 carries + targets
vs BUF, 2026-11-09: 21, missed, 6 carries + targets

ClearedMissedThe 41.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 4.8–117 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 41.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunQuarterback
Kyler Murray: Doubtful (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 3 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 41.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 27 of 33
SunCarries + targets
Last 3: 7.3 carries + targets · 2026: 17.1 (8 games) · down 57%
Target share: 5% last 3 games · 11% over 7 games this season
Defense vs running backs
GB allow 128.2 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 13th most of 32
9 games
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 vs BUF

Splits

Over 41.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs GB

Rush+Rec Yards: 40 in 13 carries + targets, Sep 13 (home)

Over 41.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against GB on record

L10 · Over 41.5

Average: 72.5; +31 vs line
Median: 77.5; +36 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −121

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −121, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5003 books	—	9/10
−1175 books	−1154 books	6/10
+1433 books	—	6/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 41.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 41.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 41.5	Under 41.5
Bovada7 min ago	−110Best	−120
FanDuel7 min ago	−113	−115
Bally Bet8 min ago	−117	—
betPARX8 min ago	−117	−112Best
BetRivers8 min ago	−118	−113
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:29 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

41.5

40.5 → 41.5 since first seen