Aaron Jones Sr.
MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PMGame log against Over 1.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).
What's different on Sunday
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Kyler Murray at quarterback; Murray is out on Sunday. Without him (MIN): Over 1.5 in 26 of 32.
SunQuarterback
Kyler Murray: Doubtful (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 3 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 1.5 with Murray at quarterback: 4 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 26 of 32
SunTargets
Last 3: 1.3 targets · 2026: 3.1 (7 games) · down 58%
Target share: 5% last 3 games · 11% over 7 games this season
Defense vs running backs
GB allow 4.6 receptions a game to running backs: 12th most of 32
9 games
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 vs BUF
Splits
Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs GB
Receptions: 0 in 1 targets, Sep 13 (home)
Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against GB on record
L10 · Over 1.5
- Average
- 2.4
- +0.9 vs line
- Median
- 2.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 61%
- at −159
- Books’ fair
- 57%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 3.2
- 10 games · 3.4 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 57%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −9104 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1596 books | +1184 books | 7/10 | |
| +1904 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +5004 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +13004 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +17001 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel14 min ago | −158Best | +118 |
| Pinnacle14 min ago | −158Best | +118 |
| Bally Bet14 min ago | −159 | — |
| betPARX14 min ago | −159 | +123Best |
| BetRivers14 min ago | −159 | — |
| Bovada14 min ago | −160 | +120 |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over: −158 → −159 since first seen


