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Aaron Jones Sr.

Minnesota Vikings · RB · #33

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder1.5
Over 1.5 Receptions, typical price −1596 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 1.5

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

  1. at DAL, 2025-12-14: 3, cleared, 3 targets
  2. at NYG, 2025-12-21: 2, cleared, 3 targets
  3. vs DET, 2025-12-25: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  4. vs GB, 2026-09-13: 0, missed, 1 targets
  5. at TB, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 6 targets
  6. vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 4, cleared, 8 targets
  7. at NO, 2026-10-11: 3, cleared, 3 targets
  8. vs IND, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 1 targets
  9. at DET, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 2 targets
  10. vs BUF, 2026-11-09: 1, missed, 1 targets
ClearedMissedThe 1.5 lineTargets

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Kyler Murray at quarterback; Murray is out on Sunday. Without him (MIN): Over 1.5 in 26 of 32.

  • SunQuarterback

    Kyler Murray: Doubtful (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Carson Wentz 3 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 1.5 with Murray at quarterback: 4 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 26 of 32

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 1.3 targets · 2026: 3.1 (7 games) · down 58%

    Target share: 5% last 3 games · 11% over 7 games this season

  • Defense vs running backs

    GB allow 4.6 receptions a game to running backs: 12th most of 32

    9 games

  • Rest

    5 days off since Nov 9 vs BUF

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs GB

Receptions: 0 in 1 targets, Sep 13 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against GB on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average
2.4
+0.9 vs line
Median
2.5
+1 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
61%
at −159
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Targets
3.2
10 games · 3.4 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 57%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−9104 books—9/10
−1596 books+1184 books7/10
+1904 books—5/10
+5004 books—2/10
+13004 books—1/10
+17001 book—0/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 1.5Under 1.5
FanDuel14 min ago−158Best+118
Pinnacle14 min ago−158Best+118
Bally Bet14 min ago−159—
betPARX14 min ago−159+123Best
BetRivers14 min ago−159—
Bovada14 min ago−160+120
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −158 → −159 since first seen

Aaron Jones Sr.'s full game log and splits