Wendell Carter Jr.

Orlando Magic · C · #34

ORL @ PHX · Live

Over Under21.5

Under 21.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1202 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%4 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 21.5 Pts+Reb hit in 4 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 34, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 18, hit, 32 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 15, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 11, hit, 20 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 17, hit, 25 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 11, hit, 31 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 24, missed, 37 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 8, hit, 24 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 31, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 23, missed, 35 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 13, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 9, hit, 32 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 18, hit, 38 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 29, missed, 31 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 29, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 19, hit, 33 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 13, hit, 26 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 27, missed, 39 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 17, hit, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 15, hit, 34 min

Under hitMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 10.4–27.4 pts+reb.

What's different yesterday

Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out yesterday. Without him: Under 21.5 in 11 of 14.

YesterdayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 21.5 without him: 11 of 14; with him: 48 of 78 (92 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 21.5 without him: 14 of 27; with him: 45 of 65 (92 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 33.4 min · 2025–26: 29.7 (85 games)
Rest
2 days off since Nov 2 vs WSH

Splits

Under 21.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 21.5 hit in 2 of 3 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 21.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Desmond BaneG
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Pts+Reb: 27 in 28 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 21.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 21.5

Average: 18.2; −3.3 vs line
Median: 17; −4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 4 of 5
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −120 the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−7152 books	—	1/5
−1752 books	—	4/5
−1102 books	−1201 book	4/5
+1752 books	—	4/5
+4502 books	—	5/5
+12801 book	—	5/5
+26001 book	—	5/5

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
DraftKings8 hr ago	−109Best	−120Best
Bally Bet8 hr ago	−110	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

20.5 → 21.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Wendell Carter Jr.'s full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.