Tyrese Maxey

Philadelphia 76ers · G · #0

PHI @ CLE · Tomorrow 7:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −1441 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs NY, 2026-05-10: 0, hit, 33 min
at NY, 2026-10-20: 3, missed, 40 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 42 min
vs MIL, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 36 min
vs DET, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 34 min
at IND, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 36 min
vs NY, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 38 min
at CHA, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 38 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 36 min
at DET, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 34 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different tomorrow

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 13 of 22; with him: 36 of 68 (90 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
CLE allow 3.8 steals a game to guards: 23rd most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 36.4 min · 2026–27: 37.1 (9 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at DET

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Joel EmbiidC
Jaylen BrownG
LeBron JamesF
Dominick BarlowFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tomorrow. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Steals: 2 in 42 min, Oct 22 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against CLE on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 59%; at −144
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −148

Research, not a pick. At −144 the price beats our fair −148, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4501 book	—	3/10
+1081 book	−1441 book	5/10
+3501 book	—	8/10
+8801 book	—	10/10
+20001 book	—	10/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+108Best	−144Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:20 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −102 → −144 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Tyrese Maxey's full game log and splits