Tristan da Silva

Orlando Magic · F · #23

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Steals, typical price −1503 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

100%5 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 0.5 Steals hit in 5 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 1, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 1, missed, 18 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 1, missed, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 0, hit, 20 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 0, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 1, missed, 24 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 0, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 1, missed, 17 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 9 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 14 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 0, hit, 16 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 0, hit, 23 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 0, hit, 8 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 1, missed, 28 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 31 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 23 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 32 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 steals.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 0.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 37 of 76 (91 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
PHX allow 1.5 steals a game to forwards: the fewest of 30
6 games
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 23.9 (84 games) · up 24%
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 12 of 24; with him: 34 of 67 (91 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 4 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Desmond BaneG
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Steals: 1 in 25 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 0.5

Average: 0; −0.5 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 100%; 5 of 5
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −179

Research, not a pick. At −150 the price beats our fair −179, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1103 books	−1501 book	5/5
	+5003 books	—	5/5

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
betPARX2 min ago	+110Best	−150Best
Bally Bet6 min ago	+110Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+110Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:58 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Tristan da Silva's full game log and splits