Tristan da Silva

Orlando Magic · F · #23

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under16.5

Under 16.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1226 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%2 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 16.5 Pts+Reb hit in 2 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 24, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 5, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 16, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 14, hit, 20 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 5, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 14, hit, 24 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 11, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 6, hit, 17 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 9 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 10, hit, 14 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 6, hit, 16 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 16, hit, 23 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 0, hit, 8 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 16, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 8, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 21, missed, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 23, missed, 31 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 8, hit, 23 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 33, missed, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 14, hit, 32 min

Under hitMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4.1–25 pts+reb.

What's different today

Under 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out today. Without him: Under 16.5 in 8 of 15.

TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 16.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 54 of 76 (91 games as teammates)
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 23.9 (84 games) · up 24%
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 16.5 without him: 15 of 24; with him: 47 of 67 (91 games as teammates)
Rest
2 days off since Nov 2 vs WSH

Splits

Under 16.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 16.5 hit in 4 of 4 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 16.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Desmond BaneG
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Pts+Reb: 12 in 25 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 16.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 16.5

Average: 19.8; +3.3 vs line
Median: 21; +4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 2 of 5
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −144

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −144, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9002 books	—	1/5
−1625 books	+1401 book	2/5
−1501 book	+1151 book	2/5
−1046 books	−1224 books	2/5
+1051 book	−1351 book	2/5
+1855 books	—	2/5
+4782 books	—	4/5

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
Bovada4 min ago	−120	−110Best
DraftKings5 min ago	−117	−112
FanDuel3 min ago	−104	−122
betPARX4 min ago	−103Best	−132
Bally Bet5 min ago	−103Best	—
BetRivers4 min ago	−103Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:26 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

Under: −114 → −122 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Tristan da Silva's full game log and splits