Tristan da Silva

Orlando Magic · F · #23

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under6.5

Under 6.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1435 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%3 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 6.5 Reb+Ast hit in 3 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 6, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 5, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 5, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 4, hit, 20 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 9, missed, 21 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 8, missed, 24 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 4, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 3, hit, 17 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 9 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 5, hit, 14 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 3, hit, 16 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 6, hit, 23 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 0, hit, 8 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 5, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 4, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 4, hit, 31 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 23 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 12, missed, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 32 min

Under hitMissedThe 6.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.3–9.3 reb+ast.

What's different today

Under 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out today. Without him: Under 6.5 in 8 of 15.

TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 6.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 55 of 76 (91 games as teammates)
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 23.9 (84 games) · up 24%
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 6.5 without him: 16 of 24; with him: 47 of 67 (91 games as teammates)
Rest
2 days off since Nov 2 vs WSH

Splits

Under 6.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 6.5 hit in 2 of 4 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 6.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Desmond BaneG
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Reb+Ast: 3 in 25 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 6.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 6.5

Average: 5.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 4; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 59%; at −143
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −167

Research, not a pick. At −138 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −167, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3154 books	—	3/5
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/5
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/5
+1055 books	−1433 books	3/5
+1751 book	—	4/5
+4404 books	—	4/5
+12001 book	—	4/5

Compare 5 sportsbooks at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
DraftKings15 min ago	+105	−138Best
betPARX4 min ago	+105	−143
FanDuel3 min ago	+114Best	−152
Bally Bet15 min ago	+105	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+105	—

Prices as of 9:26 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

Under: −152 → −143 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Tristan da Silva's full game log and splits