Tristan da Silva

Orlando Magic · F · #23

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under18.5

Under 18.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1255 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%2 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 18.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 2 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 25, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 7, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 17, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 16, hit, 20 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 11, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 16, hit, 24 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 11, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 6, hit, 17 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 9 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 11, hit, 14 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 6, hit, 16 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 16, hit, 23 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 0, hit, 8 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 19, missed, 28 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 9, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 23, missed, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 24, missed, 31 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 8, hit, 23 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 35, missed, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 17, hit, 32 min

Under hitMissedThe 18.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4.9–27.3 pts+reb+ast.

What's different today

Under 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 18.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 58 of 76 (91 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
PHX allow 56.0 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 29th most of 30
6 games
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 23.9 (84 games) · up 24%
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 18.5 without him: 15 of 24; with him: 51 of 67 (91 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 18.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 18.5 hit in 4 of 4 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 18.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Desmond BaneG
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Pts+Reb+Ast: 12 in 25 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 18.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 18.5

Average: 21.4; +2.9 vs line
Median: 23; +4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 2 of 5
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −103 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −139, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−19401 book	—	1/5
−2754 books	—	1/5
−1085 books	−1254 books	2/5
+1154 books	—	2/5
+3004 books	—	4/5
+7201 book	—	4/5
+16401 book	—	4/5

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−128	−103Best
FanDuel1 min ago	−108	−122
betPARX1 min ago	−107Best	−125
BetRivers4 min ago	−108	−127
Bally Bet5 min ago	−107Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

Under: −118 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Tristan da Silva's full game log and splits