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Tristan da Silva

Orlando Magic · F · #23

ORL @ PHX · Live
OverUnder14.5
Under 14.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1272 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 14.5

40%2 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 14.5 Pts+Ast hit in 2 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

  1. at DAL, 2026-04-03: 20, missed, 29 min (not counted)
  2. at NO, 2026-04-05: 4, hit, 18 min (not counted)
  3. vs DET, 2026-04-06: 13, hit, 33 min (not counted)
  4. vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 14, hit, 20 min (not counted)
  5. at CHI, 2026-04-10: 8, hit, 21 min (not counted)
  6. at BOS, 2026-04-12: 10, hit, 24 min (not counted)
  7. at DET, 2026-04-19: 7, hit, 21 min (not counted)
  8. at DET, 2026-04-22: 3, hit, 17 min (not counted)
  9. vs DET, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 9 min (not counted)
  10. vs DET, 2026-04-27: 7, hit, 14 min (not counted)
  11. at DET, 2026-04-29: 3, hit, 16 min (not counted)
  12. vs DET, 2026-05-01: 10, hit, 23 min (not counted)
  13. at DET, 2026-05-03: 0, hit, 8 min (not counted)
  14. vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 17, missed, 28 min (not counted)
  15. vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 6, hit, 29 min (not counted)
  16. at NY, 2026-10-25: 21, missed, 27 min
  17. at TOR, 2026-10-28: 21, missed, 31 min
  18. at TOR, 2026-10-30: 8, hit, 23 min
  19. vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 25, missed, 35 min
  20. vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 13, hit, 32 min
Under hitMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 2.6–22 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Under 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • YesterdayTeammate out

    Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)

    Under 14.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 54 of 76 (91 games as teammates)

  • YesterdayMinutes

    Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 23.9 (84 games) · up 24%

  • Teammate out

    Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)

    Under 14.5 without him: 13 of 24; with him: 49 of 67 (91 games as teammates)

  • Rest

    2 days off since Nov 2 vs WSH

Splits

Under 14.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 14.5 hit in 4 of 4 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 14.5 · L20

  • Paolo BancheroFOut

  • Franz WagnerF

  • Desmond BaneG

  • Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Pts+Ast: 9 in 25 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 14.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 14.5

Average
17.6
+3.1 vs line
Median
21
+6.5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
2 of 5
Price implies
56%
at −127
Books’ fair
52%
margin removed
Our chance
58%
estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −127 the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
−4552 books—1/5
−1152 books−1271 book2/5
+2602 books—2/5
+8501 book—4/5
+19201 book—5/5
Compare 2 sportsbooks at 14.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 14.5Under 14.5
DraftKings7 hr ago−104Best−127Best
Bally Bet7 hr ago−115—

Prices as of 9:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

13.5 → 14.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%
Tristan da Silva's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.