Tristan da Silva

Orlando Magic · F · #23

ORL @ PHX · Live

Over Under12.5

Under 12.5 Points, typical price −1253 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%2 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 12.5 Points hit in 2 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 19, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 2, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 12, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 12, hit, 20 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 2, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 8, hit, 24 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 7, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 3, hit, 17 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 9 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 6, hit, 14 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 3, hit, 16 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 10, hit, 23 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 0, hit, 8 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 14, missed, 28 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 5, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 19, missed, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 20, missed, 31 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 8, hit, 23 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 23, missed, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 10, hit, 32 min

Under hitMissedThe 12.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 1.9–19.8 points.

What's different yesterday

Under 12.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 12.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 55 of 76 (91 games as teammates)
YesterdayDefense vs forwards
PHX allow 31.8 points a game to forwards: the fewest of 30
6 games
YesterdayMinutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 23.9 (84 games) · up 24%
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 12.5 without him: 12 of 24; with him: 51 of 67 (91 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 12.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 12.5 hit in 4 of 4 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 12.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Desmond BaneG
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Points: 9 in 25 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 12.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 12.5

Average: 16; +3.5 vs line
Median: 19; +6.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 2 of 5
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2652 books	—	1/5
−2251 book	—	2/5
−1503 books	—	2/5
−1063 books	−1252 books	2/5
+1042 books	—	2/5
+1551 book	—	2/5
+1742 books	—	2/5

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 12.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 12.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 12.5	Under 12.5
DraftKings11 hr ago	−105Best	−122Best
Pinnacle11 hr ago	−106	−125
Bally Bet11 hr ago	−118	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

12.5

−136 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Tristan da Silva's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.