Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 23.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 23.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 14–39.5 pts+reb+ast.
What's different today
Over 23.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 23.5 without him: 12 of 14; with him: 46 of 59 (73 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 59.8 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 35.5 (66 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
III sat the last game (Nov 4)
Splits
Over 23.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN in his last 10; Over 23.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 23.5 · L10Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIN
III didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; pts+reb+ast the last time III faced them: 37 (Feb 6)
Over 23.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record
L10 · Over 23.5
- Average
- 23.4
- −0.1 vs line
- Median
- 24.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 52%
- at −108
- Books’ fair
- 48%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −133
Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2151 book | +1601 book | 7/10 | |
| −1701 book | +1301 book | 6/10 | |
| −1352 books | −1042 books | 6/10 | |
| −1085 books | −1274 books | 6/10 | |
| +1145 books | −1451 book | 5/10 | |
| +2854 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +7801 book | — | 1/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 23.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 23.5 | Under 23.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet14 min ago | −104Best | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −104Best | −130 |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −108 | −127 |
| Bovada14 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| DraftKings14 min ago | −110 | −119Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:56 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
23.522.5 → 23.5 since first seen