Toumani Camara

Portland Trail Blazers · F · #33

POR @ PHX · Live

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

38%5 of 13L20 · Without Sharpe

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 5 of 13 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-25: 2, missed, 24 min
vs DAL, 2026-03-27: 1, hit, 39 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-29: 3, missed, 28 min
at LAC, 2026-03-31: 2, missed, 33 min
vs NO, 2026-04-02: 3, missed, 39 min
at DEN, 2026-04-06: 1, hit, 35 min
at SA, 2026-04-08: 3, missed, 40 min
vs LAC, 2026-04-10: 1, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 34 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-04-19: 2, missed, 32 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-04-21: 3, missed, 35 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-04-24: 1, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-04-26: 1, hit, 31 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-04-28: 0, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 23 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 27 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 24 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 26 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 22 of 38; with him: 41 of 55 (93 games as teammates)
YesterdayDefense vs forwards
PHX allow 1.8 steals a game to forwards: the fewest of 30
5 games
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 1.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 2 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 27.8 min · 2025–26: 33.3 (87 games)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Damian LillardG
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Steals: 0 in 23 min, Oct 21 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 1.5

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 38%; 5 of 13
Price implies: 68%; at −215
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −156

Research, not a pick. At −215 the price is worse than our fair −156, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2843 books	—	2/13
+1623 books	−2151 book	5/13
+5123 books	—	10/13
+12002 books	—	13/13

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings15 hr ago	+160	−215Best
Bally Bet15 hr ago	+163Best	—
Bovada15 hr ago	+162	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −225 → −215 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Toumani Camara's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.