Tari Eason

Houston Rockets · F · #17

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under10.5

Over 10.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1101 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 10.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-29: 19, cleared, 31 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 16, cleared, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 3 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 12, cleared, 27 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 19, cleared, 31 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 15, cleared, 33 min
at MIL, 2026-10-28: 6, missed, 31 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 13, cleared, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 10, missed, 19 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 16, cleared, 27 min

ClearedMissedThe 10.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 5.4–21 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Over 10.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 10.5 without him: 33 of 56; with him: 11 of 18 (74 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 27.2 min · 2026–27: 24.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS
Pace · possessions a game · 8 games
MIN 7th, HOU 29th of 30

Splits

Over 10.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 10.5 cleared in 2 of 5 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 10.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Pts+Ast: 0 in 24 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 10.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 10.5

Average: 12.8; +2.3 vs line
Median: 14; +3.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −110
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −110 the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13401 book	—	9/10
−1591 book	—	8/10
−1101 book	−1191 book	7/10
+2661 book	—	5/10
+9601 book	—	0/10
+23001 book	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 10.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 10.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 10.5	Under 10.5
DraftKings18 hr ago	−110Best	−119Best

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

10.5

Over: −118 → −110 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Tari Eason's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.