Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors · G · #30

MIA @ GS · Thu, Nov 5 10:00 PM

Over Under33.5

—1 pick'em app, no priceUpdated

75%12 of 16L20 · Without Butler

Under 33.5 Pts+Ast hit in 12 of 16 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

vs ATL, 2026-01-11: 36, missed, 33 min (not counted)
vs POR, 2026-01-13: 18, hit, 25 min (not counted)
vs NY, 2026-01-15: 34, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs CHA, 2026-01-17: 19, hit, 30 min
vs MIA, 2026-01-19: 30, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-01-20: 19, hit, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-01-22: 39, missed, 34 min
at MIN, 2026-01-25: 33, hit, 28 min
at UTAH, 2026-01-28: 29, hit, 28 min
vs DET, 2026-01-30: 25, hit, 25 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 33, hit, 26 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 19, hit, 25 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 16, hit, 27 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 27, hit, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 24, hit, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 28, hit, 30 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 27, hit, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 50, missed, 32 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 37, missed, 31 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 41, missed, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 33.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 19.2–43.1 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Under 33.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Under 33.5 without him: 12 of 16; with him: 19 of 34 (50 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Under 33.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: 3 of 3 (10 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Under 33.5 without him: 8 of 12; with him: 23 of 38 (50 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.6 min · 2025–26: 31 (43 games)

Splits

Under 33.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 33.5 · L20

Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Pts+Ast: 30 in 28 min, Jan 19 (home)

Under 33.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Under 33.5

Average: 29.1; −4.4 vs line
Median: 27.5; −6 vs line
Hit rate: 75%; 12 of 16
Price implies: —; 1 pick'em app, no price
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. No sportsbook prices the Under 33.5 right now; it's posted on 1 pick'em app. Our fair price is −129.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	pick'em only	pick'em only	12/16

Compare 1 pick'em app at 33.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 33.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 33.5	Under 33.5
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

33.5

30.5 → 33.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Stephen Curry's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:10 PM ET.