Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors · G · #30

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Over 28.5 Points, typical price −1185 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

31%5 of 16L20 · Without Butler

Over 28.5 Points cleared in 5 of 16 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

vs ATL, 2026-01-11: 31, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
vs POR, 2026-01-13: 7, missed, 25 min (not counted)
vs NY, 2026-01-15: 27, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs CHA, 2026-01-17: 14, missed, 30 min
vs MIA, 2026-01-19: 19, missed, 28 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-01-20: 16, missed, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-01-22: 38, cleared, 34 min
at MIN, 2026-01-25: 26, missed, 28 min
at UTAH, 2026-01-28: 27, missed, 28 min
vs DET, 2026-01-30: 23, missed, 25 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 29, cleared, 26 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 17, missed, 25 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 11, missed, 27 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 24, missed, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 23, missed, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 24, missed, 30 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 24, missed, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 44, cleared, 32 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 31, cleared, 31 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 34, cleared, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 28.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 28.5 without him: 5 of 16; with him: 13 of 34 (50 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs guards
MIA allow 69.0 points a game to guards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 28.5 without him: 3 of 7; with him: 1 of 3 (10 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 28.5 without him: 5 of 12; with him: 13 of 38 (50 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 28.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 28.5 · L20

Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Points: 19 in 28 min, Jan 19 (home)

Over 28.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 28.5

Average: 25.3; −3.2 vs line
Median: 24; −4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 31%; 5 of 16
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Minutes: 28.2; 16 games · 31 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 28.5 49%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1955 books	+1301 book	7/16
−1602 books	+1051 book	6/16
−1376 books	−1152 books	5/16
−1185 books	−1204 books	5/16
+1006 books	−1652 books	4/16
+1362 books	−2001 book	4/16
+1355 books	−2451 book	3/16

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
Bovada2 min ago	+105Best	−135
FanDuel1 min ago	−106	−120
Bally Bet2 min ago	−118	—
betPARX2 min ago	−118	−114Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−118	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

25.5 → 28.5 since first seen

Stephen Curry's full game log and splits