Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors · G · #30

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1597 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

69%11 of 16L20 · Without Butler

Under 4.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 11 of 16 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

vs ATL, 2026-01-11: 3, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs POR, 2026-01-13: 2, hit, 25 min (not counted)
vs NY, 2026-01-15: 4, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs CHA, 2026-01-17: 2, hit, 30 min
vs MIA, 2026-01-19: 5, missed, 28 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-01-20: 2, hit, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-01-22: 8, missed, 34 min
at MIN, 2026-01-25: 3, hit, 28 min
at UTAH, 2026-01-28: 4, hit, 28 min
vs DET, 2026-01-30: 4, hit, 25 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 5, missed, 26 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 4, hit, 25 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 2, hit, 27 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 4, hit, 29 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 2, hit, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 3, hit, 30 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 3, hit, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 6, missed, 32 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 8, missed, 31 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 5, missed, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 3-pointers made.

What's different today

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 11 of 16; with him: 19 of 34 (50 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs guards
MIA allow 10.5 threes made a game to guards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Under 4.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: 2 of 3 (10 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 23 of 38 (50 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L20

Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

3-Pointers Made: 5 in 28 min, Jan 19 (home)

Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Under 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 69%; 11 of 16
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −135, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−4846 books	—	4/16
−1906 books	+1451 book	7/16
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/16
+1187 books	−1596 books	11/16
+2206 books	—	13/16
+3906 books	—	14/16
+6506 books	—	14/16

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings3 min ago	+112	−148Best
Bovada3 min ago	+115	−150
betPARX3 min ago	+118	−159
BetRivers3 min ago	+118	−159
FanDuel3 min ago	+120	−160
Pinnacle3 min ago	+124Best	−166
Bally Bet3 min ago	+118	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

3.5 → 4.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Stephen Curry's full game log and splits